Weekly movement from 3,100 counties to 434 crush plants and export terminals. Price is an output, not an input — every value on this surface emerges from supply, demand and freight.
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Company X announces plans to double crush capacity at Des Moines. Morgan re-simulates the entire 2024/25 crop year with that capacity in place and reports what changes: where the beans come from, how far they travel, what they cost, and how the competitive order shifts.
No price was assumed. Every value below emerges from county supply, plant demand and the freight network.
Baseline is the simulated 2024/25 crop year. Scenario is the same year re-run with 4,000 t/d of additional capacity at Des Moines and nothing else altered.
| Measure | Baseline | With expansion | Change | Note |
|---|
Counties supplying the plant, and how much each ships across the crop year. The territory grows from 25 counties in Iowa and Missouri to 85 across five states.
Change in volume drawn, by county. Sixty counties enter the draw from zero; sixteen existing suppliers ship materially more.
Bean cost relative to ADM Decatur, a central reference point. A higher number means the plant must pay more for a delivered bushel. Changes inside two cents are within the model's estimation band and are shown in grey.
| Plant | Baseline | With expansion | Change | Rank before | Rank after |
|---|
Change in county bean value. Seventy-four Iowa counties gain a cent or more, averaging just under three cents. The expansion is paid for by the plant and captured by the countryside.